http://www.pleonast.com/user/dbsmelser recent pleonast.com entries by user dbsmelser en-us http://www.pleonast.com/user/dbsmelser?l=5&entryID=604459 We'll see what happens next Saturday in Gainesville. 2008-11-30 http://www.pleonast.com/user/dbsmelser?l=5&entryID=602003 2008-11-22 http://www.pleonast.com/user/dbsmelser?l=5&entryID=599728 2008-11-15 http://www.pleonast.com/user/dbsmelser?l=5&entryID=597605 If anybody hasn't heard, there's been friction between McCain's campaign staff and Sarah Palin - maybe even between McCain himself and her, but that's more murky. Some of his staff though has really blasted her. Now, behold the McCain-Palin Debate of '08... (and let the final seconds of the clip tick away) 2008-11-10 http://www.pleonast.com/user/dbsmelser?l=5&entryID=596874 . Although there were three young active families, much of the congregation consisted of people in their 60's or better. With one exception, those older folks didn't seem to have ever been particularly involved, or active in their faith. I was 24, and frustrated with my inability to stimulate them to any new level of "higher ground." Recently I was organizing and clearing out a lot of old stuff, and came across this cartoon I had saved from that period. I had seen it in the paper one of those Sundays there, and in it I saw myself, and the apparent futility of my efforts! 2008-11-07 http://www.pleonast.com/user/dbsmelser?l=5&entryID=596443 Neither Missouri nor North Carolina are officially settled yet, but it seems clear which way they went. The Final Map: Obama 364 to McCain 174 And not sour grapes, but just for the facts, here's the situation a couple of weeks after the conventions, and immediately before the financial crisis became big news (states with less than 3% spread too close to call). September 15: Obama 201 to McCain 247 (270 needed to win) (note especially Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Indiana) 2008-11-06 http://www.pleonast.com/user/dbsmelser?l=5&entryID=595788 Well, I fear his inexperience, his world view, his policy views. But, some observations of a different kind. It is truly an historic night. After a few hundred years of inequality, and just 43 years since the Voting Rights Act, this nation has elected this man to the Oval Office. The Victory Speech. I thought it was an excellent speech (if only it had been presented by a man with whom I had significant agreement!), and it brought back the feeling of his first speech in Iowa. But there was also a seriousness to him tonight. It was not the raucous celebration of the Clintons and Gores on their victory night in 1992; it wasn't the celebration of mere power. Of course it may have been merely crafted and acted, but Obama's demeanor during, and more noticeably in the moments after the close of the speech, was as if you could see him feeling the weight of the Office. In spite of his dishonest campaign tactics, I'll credit him with good motivations, even if the directions he wants to go are... 2008-11-05 http://www.pleonast.com/user/dbsmelser?l=5&entryID=595479 I’ll be here live from about 6:20 / 6:30 eastern, for as long as I can stomach it. WHITE HOUSE A few notes for watching the results tonight. McCain MUST win Florida and its 27 electoral votes. Without it, he would have to win every other state where he’s even somewhat close to Obama, including states like PA, CO, and NM. But Florida results probably won’t be clear until late in the evening. Indiana has historically been one of the early calls on election night, but it’s usually strongly Republican, which is at least part of the reason it can usually be called early. This year it appears very close. If Indiana should announce its results early, that’s one to watch. If Indiana goes Obama, McCain absolutely has to win OH, PA, and FL, and can spare to lose only 19 electoral votes from the other toss-up states. Also, if normally very Republican Indiana goes Obama, lots of other toss-ups probably will also, costing McCain more than those 19 e.v.’s, and loses the election. So w... 2008-11-04 http://www.pleonast.com/user/dbsmelser?l=5&entryID=594996 The latest polls in key states show that undecideds are finally beginning to decide, with only about 2% still undecided. Those polls also show that those undecideds are turning to McCain, though I remain skeptical about it being enough to yield victory. But I do see more of a path to victory than I saw yesterday. Obama has been ahead in almost all of the following states, but McCain must win almost all of them: FL - tightening even further, now it's well within the margin of error PA - has tightened, but still seems to lean Obama OH - has tightened to the margin of error MO - dead even VA - has tightened, but still leans Obama IN - McCain probably has slight edge, but within margin of error NC - has moved from slight Obama lead w/i m/of/e, to slight McCain lead w/i m/of/e McCain ads from outside his campaign began airing over the weekend, highlighting Jeremiah Wright among other things. That may continue to turn things away from Obama. And just for COULTER, the very latest GA poll ... 2008-11-04 http://www.pleonast.com/user/dbsmelser?l=5&entryID=594605 I plan to be here live Tuesday evening with an ELECTION NIGHT SPECIAL, beginning sometime between 5 and 7 pm eastern. The earliest poll closings are at 7pm, and thus no states will be called before that. In the past I’ve held Victory Parties in my home. This year I think it’ll be just me. If you’d care to blog with me, come on by. Regardless of who wins, considering the voting stories that always break on election night, I think this live blog has the potential to be more interesting than any of my previous live Debate blogs, and also less frenetic. To catch the states and the Senate races as they are called one way or the other, I’ll have two TVs set up on 2 separate channels, and I’ll make my call for a state only after at least two channels have called a state, to manipulate my own electoral map on the side. If any of you want to watch another network for me and let me know as they call states, that’d be cool. Yeah, I know, I’m a politics uber-geek. One request, if yo... 2008-11-03